The Economics of Firearms

The economy of the firearms industry is unlike nearly any other market. Aside from the political issues inherent with guns, the raw market forces are unlike few others. You have a very conservative* buying bulk, durable goods that are resistant to planned obsolescence and are relatively affordable. Add in the inherent danger and commensurate limits on use and you'd think that the public market for firearms would be niche and bespoke. But the actual market is much stranger.

Let me be clear that I am only talking about the US firearms market as I understand it. Other markets have different constraints and I know practically nothing about them. The US firearms market has multiple major supplies and overlapping market segments. There are cultural reasons for the popularity of guns in the US and the fact that there have never been strong restrictions on purchasing guns have created a large market.

The demand for affordable guns has always been strong and has traditionally been filled by low end manufacturers, inexpensive imports and surplus military firearms. These firearms historically have been the guns of choice for the impoverished and the working class. These buyers will often own 1 or a small handful of guns with a very specific focus. Typically hunting rifles and shotguns and inexpensive handguns for self protection. The affordable market typically doesn't get the popular gun, or the most powerful calibers. They fall into the category of having a gun, even if it isn't the perfect gun for what they want to do.

The middle class gun community has a lot of variety. Fewer buyers here limit themselves to a less then a half-dozen guns. They typically either branch out into buying and trading many different guns that are designed for more specialized roles or they find a collecting niche and begin to amass large collections of specific guns. Often surplus arms from historic wars or specific countries. Those that spread out usually buy a better quality of gun than the working class gun owner. Often new guns from large manufacturers. You'll find that they may have a dozen pistols in 4 different calibers all that fill some niche. Or a safe full of different rifles with different actions, barrel lengths and other specializations. These gun owners often trade and sell guns that they've grown tired of to finance new and interesting guns.

Wealthy gun owners also tend to behave like middle class gun owners, but more so. With larger collections, more expensive new firearms, custom made guns and more restricted types of guns. Wealthier collectors are more likely to have machineguns and large themed collections.

The "Demand" phase of the market has many realities that restrict production. Guns are durable, they last a long time. There are plenty of them already, creating an inheritance and used market. there is little true innovation in the industry, and even the most innovative modern firearm is only a evolution, not a revolution, from firearms nearly 150 years old. Gun compainies have to not only develop the next generation of customers, but also convince them to not only buy new guns, but many new guns. The creation of demand is started with variety, cosmetic, minor and major changes to existing designs, new designs from the ground up and chambering existing lines in noe calibers (that have a much smaller research and development cycle) that are advertised as better then the equvilent cartridge with a long history. In all of these there may be some minor inmrovement, but marketing is the big drive. The other major upward pressure is regulation. the gun manufacturers create hype for the feture, cycling through needsto address*As in unlikely to adopt new technology


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